Os Gastos Tributários Contribuem para o Aumento da Produtividade Total dos Fatores no Brasil?
Palabras clave:
Gastos Tributários; Política Fiscal; Produtividade Total dos Fatores (PTF); VAR Bayesiano; Avaliação de Políticas PúblicasResumen
La eficacia del gasto tributario como política pública es central en Brasil y en el mundo, debido a su expansión y a los elevados costos indirectos para el presupuesto público. A pesar de su relevancia, existe la necesidad de un mayor debate en Brasil, donde este tipo de gasto supera, desde 2006, los presupuestos de Salud y Educación, creciendo más rápidamente desde 1996, sin evidencia clara de retorno. Evaluar los efectos dinámicos del gasto tributario sobre la productividad total de los factores en Brasil. Se utilizó un modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos Bayesianos (BVAR), con variables deflactadas, per cápita y en logaritmos, adecuado para series macroeconómicas cortas. Manteniéndose las demás condiciones, el aumento del gasto tributario reduce la productividad total de los factores en 0,006331. Los hallazgos indican la necesidad de reevaluaciones periódicas y robustas de estas políticas, con el fin de garantizar su efectividad y promover el crecimiento económico sostenible.
Citas
AUTOREGRESSION, Bayesian Vector. Improving Economic Forecasting With Bayesian Vector Autoregression. Modelling Economic Series: Readings in Econometric Methodology, p. 214, 1990.
BEER, Sebastian; et al. How to Evaluate Tax Expenditures. International Monetary Fund, 2022. (IMF Working Paper, WP/22/65). Disponível em: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Fiscal-Affairs-Department-How-To-Notes/Issues/2022/11/How-to-Evaluate-Tax-Expenditures-525166. Acesso em: 20 out. 2025.
CHRISTIANO, Lawrence J. Searching for a Break in GNP. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, v. 10, n. 3, p. 237-250, 1992.
Corcelli, C. (2021). GASTOS TRIBUTÁRIOS E CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO NO BRASIL ENTRE 2004 A 2015: UMA AVALIAÇÃO EMPÍRICA. CADERNOS DE FINANÇAS PÚBLICAS, 20(3). Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.55532/1806-8944.2020.100. Acesso em: 20 out. 2025.
DEVARAJAN, Shantayanan; et al. The composition of public expenditure and economic growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 37, n. 2, p. 313–344, 1996. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(96)90039-2. Acesso em: 20 out. 2025.
DICKEY, D. A. e FULLER, W.A. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, v. 74, n. 336, p. 427-431, 1979.
______. Likelihood ratio statistics for auto-regressive time series with unit root. Econometrica, v. 49, nº 4, 1981.
DOAN, Thomas; LITTERMAN, Robert; SIMS, Christopher. Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions. Econometric reviews, v. 3, n. 1, p. 1-100, 1984.
ELLIOT, G., ROTHENBERG, T. J. e STOCK, J. H. Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, v. 64, n. 4, p. 813-836, 1996.
ENDERS, W. Applied econometric time series. Fourth Edition. Wiley series in probability and mathematical statistics, Nova York, 4ª ed., 2015.
HOLDEN, Ken. Vector auto regression modeling and forecasting. Journal of Forecasting, v. 14, n. 3, p. 159-166, 1995.
KOOP, Gary; PESARAN, M. Hashem; POTTER, Simon M. Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models. Journal of econometrics, v. 74, n. 1, p. 119-147, 1996.
LANNE, M; SAIKKONEN, P; LÜTKEPOHL, H. Comparison of unit root tests for time series with level shifts. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 23, p. 667-685, 2002.
______. Test procedures for unit roots in time series with level shifts at unknown time. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, v. 65, p. 91-115, 2003.
LUTKEPOHL, H. Introduction to multiple time series analysis. Berlin: Springer, 1991.
LITTERMAN, Robert B. Bayesian procedure for forecasting with vector autoregressions. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1980. Disponível em: https://www.scirp.org/reference/referencespapers?referenceid=2912401. Acesso em 20 out. 2025.
MA, Guangrong; et al. Do tax incentives foster productivity in China? Firm-level evidence. Economic Modelling, v. 126, 106289, 2023.
NG, S. e PERRON, P. Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica, v. 69, n. 6, p. 1519-1554, 2001.
OLIVEIRA, J. L. M. B. de; et al. GASTOS TRIBUTÁRIOS EM TRAJETÓRIA: ANÁLISE DAS POLÍTICAS DE RENÚNCIA FISCAL DA UNIÃO (1996-2023). Boletim de Conjuntura (BOCA), Boa Vista, v. 18, n. 52, p. 802–831, 2024. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.11238703.
PERRON, P. The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, v. 57, n. 6. p. 1361-1401, 1989.
__________ Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables. Journal of Econometrics, v. 80, n. 2, p. 355-385, 1997.
PESARAN, H. Hashem; SHIN, Y. Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economics Letters, v. 58, n. 1, p. 17-29, 1998.
PHILLIPS, P. C. B. e PERRON, P. Testing for unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, v. 75, n. 2, p. 335-346, 1988.
SAID, S. e DICKEY, D. A. Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of unknown order. Biometrika, v. 71, p. 599-607, 1984.
SAIKKONEN, Pentti; LÜTKEPOHL, Helmut. Testing for a unit root in a time series with a level shift at unknown time. Econometric theory, v. 18, n. 2, p. 313-348, 2002.
SPENCER, David E. Developing a Bayesian vector autoregression forecasting model. International Journal of Forecasting, v. 9, n. 3, p. 407-421, 1993.
SIMS, Christopher A. Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, p. 1-48, 1980.
VOGELSANG, Timothy J.; PERRON, Pierre. Additional tests for a unit root allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time. International economic review, p. 1073-1100, 1998.
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2026 CUADERNO DE FINANZAS PÚBLICAS
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
Los artículos se pueden copiar, ya que cotqué el origen.
