O Orçamento como Instrumento de Justiça Distributiva: Evidências Empíricas e Fundamentos Constitucionais das Emendas PIX no Brasil

Abstract

This study examines the effects of special parliamentary appropriations—referred to as emendas PIX—on the allocation of public resources and the constitutional principle of distributive justice in Brazil. Grounded in the Law and Economics tradition and the hypothesis of dissipative inclusion, the analysis considers that transfer policies may yield immediate distributive gains despite their limited long‑term efficiency. A balanced panel covering the 27 federative entities from 2015 to 2022 was constructed using socioeconomic indicators and budgetary and political data sourced from the National Treasury Secretariat (STN) and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The empirical strategy employs multiple specifications of difference‑in‑differences models, complemented by robustness checks. The findings indicate that, in the short term (2020–2022), these amendments produced no statistically significant effects on the Human Development Index, suggesting that potential distributive impacts may emerge only over longer horizons. The study concludes that emendas PIX operate as transitional instruments of fiscal inclusion whose distributive effectiveness depends on alignment with structurally oriented public policies.