Regra fiscal e eficácia da política monetária: Estimativas para o caso Brasileiro

Autores/as

  • Daniel Pereira dos Anjos PPGEco-UFES
  • Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira PPGEco-UFES

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55532/1806-8944.2022.165

Palabras clave:

Política Monetária, Política Fiscal, Regras Fiscais

Resumen

Um Banco Central precisa avaliar os efeitos da política fiscal na economia caso queira maior precisão no impacto de suas decisões no produto e no nível de preços: uma política fiscal inconsistente pode tornar a política monetária ineficaz. Este trabalho buscou compreender os efeitos da política fiscal na condução da política monetária brasileira. Para isto, utilizando dados mensais entre janeiro/2003 e janeiro/2020, uma regra fiscal foi estimada; a partir desta regra, utilizando o filtro de Kalman, foi extraída uma série temporal contendo a resposta do superávit primário/PIB às variações da dívida pública/ PIB. Então, um índice de resposta fiscal foi testado em uma regra de política monetária; os resultados mostraram que maior resposta fiscal às variações da dívida resulta em menor variabilidade da taxa real de juros. Pode-se interpretar o resultado como maior eficácia da política monetária no controle inflacionário propiciada por maior responsividade fiscal ao endividamento público

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167

Publicado

24-05-2022

Cómo citar

Pereira dos Anjos, D., & Ramalhete Moreira, R. (2022). Regra fiscal e eficácia da política monetária: Estimativas para o caso Brasileiro. CUADERNO DE FINANZAS PÚBLICAS, 22(01), 55. https://doi.org/10.55532/1806-8944.2022.165