Long-Term Projections for Social Security in Latin America and The Caribbean and Brazil and Implications for Financing

Abstract

The article made projections of pension expenditure as a proportion of GDP for Latin America and the Caribbean, Central America, South America, the Caribbean and Brazil for the period from 2022 to 2100. To make the estimates, a projection model found in studies by the OECD, IMF, European Union and IPEA was used. The results point to a long-term trend of a significant increase in pension expenditure as a percentage of GDP between 2022 and 2100 for all the regions analyzed, with replacement rate scenarios. These estimates are consistent with the expected process of intense population aging. Given this context, it would be advisable, from the point of view of public policies, to take action to strengthen funding, reduce informality and increase labor productivity. The debate is important in view of initiatives such as the exemption of payroll and Individual Microentrepreneurship (MEI) and the growing importance of digital platform workers.