Impact of personnel management measures on personnel expenditure"

Abstract

Using social security and RAIS data, we simulated the impact of personnel management measures on the compensation expenditures of active public servants (2022-2031) in the federal and state governments. Differently from Cavalcanti et al. (2020), we based ourselves on career entry cohorts. PEC 32/2020, known as Administrative Reform, serves as motivation for this exercise, even though the results do not correspond to the fiscal impact of the PEC taken in isolation. The measures analyzed here will perhaps only be implemented in the future, through legislative proposals of an infra-constitutional nature. The results indicate that spending would be stable in the baseline scenario (that is, without the adoption of the measures). The savings would be small in the short term, but could reach an accumulated R$ 128 billion over 10 years, divided between R$ 57 billion (Federal Government) and R$ 71 billion (states). As an additional contribution, we evaluated the sensitivity of these estimates to different parameters of the public servants' work cycle.