Public revenue forecasting and financial resilience
does forward-looking ability matter for states’ fiscal soundness?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55532/1806-8944.2022.145Keywords:
Financial resilience, Anticipatory Capacity, Fiscal Rules, Fiscal crisis, Fiscal AusterityAbstract
Objective: this article seeks to answer whether anticipatory capacity, measured by the degree of achievement of forecast revenue, is associated with fiscal results, especially in periods of economic crises.
Methodology: from the accounting data of the states and the Federal District of Brazil, in the period from 2015 to 2018, econometric analysis was used in panel data, in order to find an association between the anticipatory capacity and budgetary results and current savings.
Results: a positive association was found between the degree of achievement of total revenues and the budgetary result dependent variable, as well as the degree of achievement of expected current revenues and the current savings.
Practical implications: the results shed light on the importance of improving revenue-forecasting tools and their importance for fiscal soundness.
Originality and value of the contribution: the present study quantitatively highlights the importance of anticipatory capacity for the financial resilience of subnational governments.
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