IMPACTS OF THE NEW FISCAL REGIME ON THE SUPERIOR COURT OF JUSTICE: A FORECAST BASED ON THE COURT'SBUDGETARY EXECUTION HISTORY

Abstract

This study initially investigates the implementation of the Brazilian New Tax Regime (NRF) due to the limitation of primary spending over 20 years, with the hypothesis that the persistent growth of mandatory expenses will restrict discretionary expenses to critical levels. With a particular focus on the Brazilian Justice system, this concern is aggravated by the main budget balance related to both personnel and benefits expenses. This study then assesses the impacts and forecasts of the implementation of the NRF on the Brazilian Superior Court of Justice (STJ). To this end, this research analyses the time series of budget execution from 2010 to 2019 and also uses data to make budgetary forecasts until 2026. This is done using the additive Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing statistical model. The results found that mandatory expenses should confirm the expectation of growth above the level of readjustment of the limit, compressing costs and investment. This challenge set by the NRF is therefore being met by the STJ's economic effort, which, so far, has proved efficient, and based on our predictions, should intensify until 2026.