DÍVIDA PÚBLICA E CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO NO BRASIL

  • Ágatha Lechner da Silva Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional
  • António Afonso ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa; REM/UECE
  • Sérgio Ricardo de Brito Gadelha Universidade de Brasília
Palavras-chave: causalidade de Granger; VEC; ARDL; dívida do governo; crescimento econômico.

Resumo

Neste estudo fornecemos novas evidências sobre a relação entre a dívida pública e o crescimento econômico no Brasil. Foram aplicados testes de causalidade de Granger, em análises multivariadas e bivariadas usando Vetor de Correção de Erros (VEC) e modelos Autorregressivos de Defasagens Distribuídas (ARDL). Utilizaram-se dados mensais entre janeiro de 1998 a novembro de 2019. Considerou-se a interação entre outras variáveis ​​como juros, inflação, câmbio, Índice de Emerging Market Bond Index Plus (Embi +) e superávit primário. As conclusões são: Dívida e crescimento do PIB têm uma relação de causalidade de Granger bidirecional. A dívida pode melhorar o crescimento no curto prazo e se tornar prejudicial no longo prazo. A taxa de crescimento do PIB sempre reduz a dívida, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo. A dinâmica entre dívida e crescimento no longo prazo é influenciada pela interação com a taxa de inflação, a taxa de câmbio e Embi+.

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Publicado
2021-01-07
Como Citar
Lechner da Silva, Ágatha, Afonso, A., & Ricardo de Brito Gadelha, S. (2021). DÍVIDA PÚBLICA E CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO NO BRASIL. CADERNOS DE FINANÇAS PÚBLICAS , 20(3). Recuperado de https://publicacoes.tesouro.gov.br/index.php/cadernos/article/view/108