DEMOCRACIA, REDISTRIBUIÇÃO E CONTRATO SOCIAL: EVIDÊNCIAS SOBRE A DINÂMICA FISCAL DOS ESTADOS

Abstract

The main objective of this work is to explore the interaction between the democratization process and change of social contract on government size and public spending in Brazil. The hypothesis of the thesis is the persistence of a fiscal policy pattern, present in both central government and subnational governments, composed of the following characteristics: i) increased pressure for increasing government size; ii) growth of current expenditure in relation to investment; and iii) procyclical and voracity effect. This fiscal policy pattern has its origin in the democratization process in the 1980s, with demands of society for public goods (education, health, social security, for example) and redistribution policies, stemming from the deepening of democracy and the presence of universal suffrage. Alongside, the emerging equilibrium suggests the need to accommodate interest groups (business elites and civil servant, for example) that equip the state and seek to defend and expand their privileges, especially in relation to tax benefits, access to budgetary resources and defense of priority in spending. So, the viability of this balance depends on the growth of government size that serves to minimize conflicts between interest groups, also preserving social and politics stability. However, the equilibrium contributes to strengthening the fiscal illusion about the short and long-term limitation of the budget and fiscal policy. The contribution of the work is to deepen the discussion about how the functioning of an or new democracy and the change in the social contract in an environment of weak institutions can influence government size and the behavior of spending in the short and long term. In addition, the thesis seeks to explore what the fiscal problems, potential weaknesses and channels of transmission that relate to new democracy and fiscal problems are, taking Brazil as a case study.