Indirect Tax Reform in Brazil
Firm Dynamics, Informality and Simples Nacional
Keywords:
Tax Reform, Simples Nacional, General Equilibrium, ProductivityAbstract
In this article, we analyze the impact of the tax reform recently approved in Brazil. We developed
a general equilibrium model that incorporates sectoral heterogeneity, informality and a special
tax regime for small businesses: Simples Nacional. Simulating the reform with a measure to
simplify the tax system, we estimate an increase of up to 4.5% in GDP, with 2.7% due to the
approximation of rates between sectors and up to 1.8% due to the simplification of the tax
system. The results are significantly different in simulations in which informality and Simples
are not present.
References
ALVAREZ, B.; JOAO PAULO PESSOA; SOUZA, A. Firm Size Distribution and Informality Effects of a Revenue-Dependent Tax Policy. 1 jan. 2023.
CALIENDO, L; DVORKIN, M; PARRO, F. Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock. Econometrica. New Haven, 87(3), p.741–835, maio, 2019. Disponível em: https://www.econometricsociety.org/publications/econometrica/2019/05/01/trade-and-labor-market-dynamics-general-equilibrium-analysis
Núcleo de tributação do INSPER, Contencioso Tributário no Brasil, INSPER, 2020. Disponível em: https://repositorio.insper.edu.br/entities/publication/e6ee058d-3cb0-4935-8463-995b95b497c0/full
COSAR, A. K., GUNER, N., TYBOUT, J.. Firm Dynamics, Job Turnover, and Wage Distributions in an Open Economy. American Economic Review, 106(3), p..625–653, março, 2016. Disponível em: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20110457
DE PAULA, A., SCHEINKMAN, J. A. Value-added taxes, chain effects, and informality. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(4), p.195–221, outubro, 2010. Disponível em: https://benny.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.2.4.195
DELALIBERA, B.R, FERREIRA, P.C, GOMES, D. B. P., SOARES, J. R. d. S. Tax reforms and network effects. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 163,p. 104862, junho, 2024. Disponível em: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S016518892400054X
DIX CARNEIRO, R. GOLDBERG, P. MEGHIR, C, ULYSSEA, G. Trade and Domestic Distortions: The Case of Informality. Submetido à publicação.
BANCO MUNDIAL. Doing Business 2020, World Bank Publications, dezembro, 2020. Disponível em: https://archive.doingbusiness.org/pt/reports/global-reports/doing-business-2020#:~:text=O%20Doing%20Business%202020%20continua,%C3%A0%20constitui%C3%A7%C3%A3o%20de%20novas%20empresas.
FAJNZYLBER, P., MALONEY, W., MONTES-ROJAS, G.. Does formality improve micro-firm performance? Evidence from the Brazilian SIMPLES program. Journal of Development Economics, 94(2), p.262–276, março,2011. Disponível em: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387810000118
GOMES, D. B., IACHAN, F. S., SANTOS, C. Labor earnings dynamics in a developing economy with a large informal sector. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 13, p.103854, abril, 2020. Disponível em: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165188920300245
LUCAS, R. E. On the Size Distribution of Business Firms. The Bell Journal of Economics, 9(2), p.508–523, setembro, 1978. Disponível em: https://www.jstor.org/stable/3003596
MATSUMOTO, M. Essays in Firm Taxation and Job Loss. Tese de doutorado, Princeton University, Princeton, Nova Jersey.Dispoível em: http://arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp01fq977x851
MONTEIRO, J. C. M., ASSUNÇÃO, J. J. Coming out of the shadows? Estimating the impact of bureaucracy simplification and tax cut on formality in Brazilian microenterprises. Journal of Development Economics, 99(1), p.105–115, setembro , 2012. Disponível em: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387811001052
OLIVEIRA, João Maria de. Efeitos da equalização tributária regional/setorial no Brasil: uma aplicação de equilíbrio geral dinâmico, 2021, 137 f. Tese (doutorado em ciências), Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, Distrito Federal ,2020.
TOREZANI, T. A. (2022). Heterogeneidade estrutural e informalidade no Brasil: Produtividade por setor de produção na década de 2010. In: 50º encontro nacional de economia (ANPEC) Fortaleza/CE, 06 a 09 de dezembro de 2022. Disponivel em: https://www.anpec.org.br/encontro/2022/submissao/files_I/i6-bb632d67da27ebfdfdbb0d73b5e276e2.pdf
ULYSSEA, G. Firms, Informality, and Development: Theory and Evidence from Brazil. American Economic Review, 108(8), p.2015–2047, agosto , 2018. Disponível em: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20141745
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 CADERNOS DE FINANÇAS PÚBLICAS
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The articles can be copied, since quoted the source.