How to deflate federal tax revenues? A proposal for a price index for taxes

Authors

  • Hébrida Verardo Moreira Fam Secretariat of Economic Policy - Ministry of Economy
  • Fausto José Araujo Vieira Secretariat of Economic Policy - Ministry of Economy
  • Rogério Mazali Secretariat of Economic Policy - Ministry of Economy / University of Brasília
  • Elder Linton Alves de Araújo Secretariat of Economic Policy - Ministry of Economy

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55532/1806-8944.2023.200

Keywords:

deflator, tax revenue, tax, inflation, industries

Abstract

The present study proposes the creation of a federal tax revenue deflator, based on data classified by CNAE industries and type of tax, made available by the Brazilian Federal Revenue Secretariat (RFBME). The starting point are industry-specific deflators and weights for specific taxes in each industry that are multiplied by the change in industry indices. The total deflator is the weighted sum of each tax deflator. The deflated results showed that tax revenues increased from R$ 1.3 trillion in 2016 to R$ 1.437 trillion in 2021, with a real increase of 8.8% in the period, which is equivalent to a growth of 1.7% a year. In the second part of the study, simulations are carried out to identify the effects of changes in prices on the tax revenue. Results show that a drop in 12% on commodity prices impacts the tax revenue in 0.4%, due to an exchange rate devaluation of 5% in relation to a base scenario. However, in the absence of an exchange rate compensation, the impact on the tax revenue will be of -1.4%.

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Published

18-01-2023

How to Cite

Verardo Moreira Fam, H., Araujo Vieira, F. J., Mazali, R., & Linton Alves de Araújo, E. (2023). How to deflate federal tax revenues? A proposal for a price index for taxes. CADERNOS DE FINANÇAS PÚBLICAS, 23(01). https://doi.org/10.55532/1806-8944.2023.200

Issue

Vol. 23 No. 01 (2023): CADERNOS DE FINANÇAS PÚBLICAS - "EDIÇÃO ESPECIAL"

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Artigos

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